2. mai 2026

PART 4 — FERTILISERS & PETROCHEMICALS: Q1 2026 GLOBAL COMMODITY MARKETS

WEALDRAED THRYMMELLEN
Email: info@wealdraedthrymmellen.org
Phone: +971 58 540 3888
Downloadable link: https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=16huleqgxU2FkY8RIyn-J50JVIdUAXGvs
Report Period: January – April 2026
Published: May 2026
Sources: S&P Global Platts · Argus Media · LME · CBOT · Baltic Exchange · EIA · IEA · USDA · World Bank · LBMA · OPEC · FAO · ISCC · wealdraedthrymmellen.org

4.1 Urea — Most Severe Market Dislocation

Urea was the fertiliser most severely impacted by the Hormuz closure. Rabobank estimates that 30% of global urea exports, 27% of ammonia, 24% of phosphates, and 48% of sulphur normally transit through the now-blocked Middle East corridor.

Region / Benchmark: FOB Assaluyeh (Iran) — March
Price: $710–785/t
Commentary: PETRO NOVA / Argus FOB Middle East

Region / Benchmark: FOB Iskenderun (Turkey) — February
Price: $445/t
Commentary: Espandiar (pre-shock stockpile)

Region / Benchmark: CFR India (tender)
Price: ~$350–365/t
Commentary: Argus (subdued pre-shock)

Region / Benchmark: China domestic average (Q1)
Price: 1,768 RMB/t (+5% QoQ)
Commentary: Chinese domestic data

Region / Benchmark: China urea (Jan → Mar)
Price movement: 1,445 → ~2,600 RMB/t
Commentary: ~80% domestic surge

Region / Benchmark: Price spread (Assaluyeh vs Iskenderun)
Value: ~$340/t differential
Commentary: Maritime insurance premium

Q1 global price rise: +75–90%
Source: World Bank / Tridge / Argus

Turkey imposed a total ban on urea exports. Russia suspended ammonium nitrate exports. China maintained restrictions on urea, DAP/MAP, NP, and SSP/DSP exports. World Bank projects a 31% annual fertiliser price increase for 2026.

4.2 Ammonia

Type: Grey ammonia (CFR India, April cargoes)
Price: >$800/t
Source: Argus CFR India

Type: Green ammonia — United States
Price: $807/t
Source: IMARC Group

Type: Green ammonia — Canada
Price: $875/t
Source: IMARC Group

Type: Green ammonia — Germany
Price: $860/t
Source: IMARC Group

Type: Green ammonia — India
Price: $722/t
Source: IMARC Group

Green premium over grey: 30–50%
Source: IMARC Group / Argus

4.3 Sulphur & Other Fertilisers

Sulphur CFR China surged from $130–135/t in December 2025 to over $200/t in March 2026 (up ~55%). Sulphur granular reached $512–515/t CFR China by end of quarter due to disrupted Iranian and Qatari supply. The price cascade flowed directly into sulphuric acid costs (an input in metal refining), amplifying industrial cost inflation.

Potassium chloride (50 kg bags, Uzbek origin): $349/t FCA Lotf Abad (Iran-Turkmenistan border). Ammonium nitrate (50 kg bags, Uzbek origin): $320/t FCA Lotf Abad or $359/t CPT Bashmaq (Iran-Iraq border). Transport permits included.

4.4 Polymers & Petrochemicals

Product: HDPE (East Asia)
Price Movement Q1 2026: +37% since late February
Commentary: ~14 Mt/year of PE exports normally transit Hormuz; source OPIS

Product: Polypropylene (PP) — East Asia
Price Movement Q1 2026: +38% Q1; CFR Far East $1,220–1,380/t April
Commentary: Saudi Arabian PP non-OMV export ~$830/t

Product: Propylene (Middle East)
Price Movement Q1 2026: $1.23/kg March (+11.8% since Dec)
Commentary: Upstream feedstock surge

Product: Naphtha / Light hydrocarbons
Price Movement Q1 2026: Correlated with crude surge
Commentary: Domino effect through refinery chain

Product: HDPE / LLDPE (PETRO NOVA)
Structure: Fixed USD/MT + volume discounts
Commentary: FCA Asaluyeh / Sahlan / Turkey

Product: Ethylene (Iran producers)
Structure: ICIS CFR NEA + Alpha pricing
Commentary: CFR Asia to Bangladesh, China, Malaysia

PETRO NOVA sourced HDPE and LLDPE from Jam Petrochemical and Persian Gulf Holding for FCA Asaluyeh/Sahlan/Turkey delivery, with volume discounts. Methanol from Apadana was offered CFR China/India on ICIS/Platts average + Alpha (%) pricing.

4.5 Green Commodities & Certification

In January 2026, Argus Media launched its first FOB Strait of Malacca price assessments for RED-certified Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA/HVO). Hydroprocessed capacity in Southeast Asia (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand) will exceed 3.3 million tonnes per year by mid-2026. European HVO demand is forecast at 9.4 billion litres in 2026 vs. 6.9 billion in 2025.

ISCC 2026 introduced higher licensing fees for large enterprises including a 'quantity tax' (~€0.11/t) for sustainable products. Any transaction in green commodities requires an active Proof of Sustainability (PoS) under ISCC PLUS or RSB certification, with CI (Carbon Intensity) score certified under GREET model. An 'Expired', 'Withdrawn', or 'Not Found' status in the ISCC public registry renders the cargo commercially non-receivable.

WEALDRAED THRYMMELLEN
Email: info@wealdraedthrymmellen.org
Phone: +971 58 540 3888
Downloadable link: https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=16huleqgxU2FkY8RIyn-J50JVIdUAXGvs
Report Period: January – April 2026
Published: May 2026
Sources: S&P Global Platts · Argus Media · LME · CBOT · Baltic Exchange · EIA · IEA · USDA · World Bank · LBMA · OPEC · FAO · ISCC · wealdraedthrymmellen.org