2. mai 2026

PART 2 — METALS MARKETS: Q1 2026 GLOBAL COMMODITY MARKETS

WEALDRAED THRYMMELLEN
Email: info@wealdraedthrymmellen.org
Phone: +971 58 540 3888
Downloadable link: https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=16huleqgxU2FkY8RIyn-J50JVIdUAXGvs
Report Period: January – April 2026
Published: May 2026
Sources: S&P Global Platts · Argus Media · LME · CBOT · Baltic Exchange · EIA · IEA · USDA · World Bank · LBMA · OPEC · FAO · ISCC · wealdraedthrymmellen.org

2.1 Gold — All-Time Record

Gold was the principal beneficiary of risk aversion. Q1 2026 saw demand reach $193 billion in value (+74% YoY) on only 1,231 tonnes volume (+2% YoY) — demonstrating that price, not physical demand, drove the explosion in value.

Indicator: LBMA PM fix average (Q1)
Q1 2026 Value: $4,872.90/oz (record)
Source: LBMA

Indicator: Historical peak (29 January)
Q1 2026 Value: $5,405/oz
Source: LBMA / World Gold Council

Indicator: Q1 performance
Q1 2026 Value: +5.05% (from $4,386.85 open)
Source: LBMA

Indicator: Total demand (value)
Q1 2026 Value: $193 billion (+74% YoY)
Source: World Gold Council

Indicator: Investment demand (bars/coins)
Q1 2026 Value: 474 tonnes
Source: World Gold Council

Indicator: Central bank net purchases
Q1 2026 Value: 244 tonnes (+3% YoY)
Source: World Gold Council

Indicator: JPMorgan 2026 full-year average
Q1 2026 Value: $4,600–$4,700/oz
Source: JPMorgan Research

Central bank buying — primarily from BRICS+ institutions — continues to reflect a structural de-dollarisation strategy. Asian retail accumulation (bars and coins) added 474 tonnes of physical demand. Some analysts project gold could test $7,000/oz if conflict persists through H2 2026.

2.2 Silver

Indicator: Opening price (1 January)
Q1 2026 Value: $74.02/oz

Indicator: Peak (late January)
Q1 2026 Value: $121.67/oz (historic record)

Indicator: Performance since start of 2025
Q1 2026 Value: +150%

Indicator: JPMorgan 2026 forecast
Q1 2026 Value: +15–20% vs 2025 average

Silver's surge was driven by dual demand: safe-haven buying correlated with gold, plus industrial demand from photovoltaic solar panels and electric vehicles. Industrial silver inventories fell to their lowest levels of 40 years.

2.3 Energy Transition Metals — Lithium, Cobalt, Rare Earths

Metal: Lithium (battery grade)
Q1 2026 Key Data: Peak ~$19,850/t in Jan; avg ~$23,000/t; +75% vs Q4 2025
Commentary: High volatility; correction end of quarter on EV demand uncertainty

Metal: Cobalt (MB)
Q1 2026 Key Data: Avg $25.9/lb; +118% YoY
Commentary: Supply constrained by DRC export limitations

Metal: Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr)
Q1 2026 Key Data: +34% Q1; China raised reference price
Commentary: Market near-controlled by China

Metal: Rare Earth Oxide (REO 50%)
Q1 2026 Key Data: 26,834 RMB/t Jan (+2.4%); 38,804 RMB/t Q2 guidance
Commentary: Structurally controlled by Beijing pricing

2.4 Copper — New Absolute Record

Indicator: LME 3-month record (6 Jan / 29 Jan)
Q1 2026 Value: $13,388/t → $14,527.50/t
Source: LME / NASDAQ

Indicator: LME registered stocks (early Jan)
Q1 2026 Value: 142,550 t (lowest since Nov 2025)
Source: LME

Indicator: 2025 annual performance
Q1 2026 Value: +41.7% (strongest base metal)
Source: LME / Bloomberg

Indicator: Goldman Sachs Q1 forecast
Q1 2026 Value: $12,750/t
Source: Goldman Sachs

Indicator: Bernstein Q1 forecast
Q1 2026 Value: $11,500/t
Source: Bernstein

Demand drivers: Chinese energy transition (solar, EVs, grid cabling), plus supply fears from Chile, Peru, and Africa. The market significantly outperformed all major bank forecasts.

2.5 Aluminium, Nickel, Iron Ore

Metal: Aluminium (LME 3-month)
Q1 2026 Level: ~$3,090 open → $3,492/t close
Key Dynamic: High energy costs vs. weak European demand and new Middle Eastern capacity

Metal: Nickel (LME)
Q1 2026 Level: ~$18,524/t avg; +8.95% in one session
Key Dynamic: Indonesian export restrictions; EV battery demand

Metal: Iron Ore (S&P Global 61% index)
Q1 2026 Level: ~$100–110/t; V-shaped recovery
Key Dynamic: High Chinese port stocks pressuring prices; Indian construction sustaining demand

WEALDRAED THRYMMELLEN
Email: info@wealdraedthrymmellen.org
Downloadable link: https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=16huleqgxU2FkY8RIyn-J50JVIdUAXGvs
Phone: +971 58 540 3888